Dairy trade, wheat exports and escalating inflationary pressure – RealAgriculture

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There’s so much going on right now in the world of politics and trade, whether it’s dairy disputes, the wheat market, big decisions for countries about what to do with exports, massive inflation, etc.

Al Mussel, head of research at the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI), joins hosts Shaun Haney and Kelvin Heppner on the latest episode of RealAg Politics to break it all down.

ABSTRACT

  • A lot of attention at the moment on wheat, and India limits exports
  • There is a hyper focus on food safety at the moment
  • In many developing countries, they get most of their calorie intake from wheat products
  • Are we at the height of the wheat shortage and attracting so much public attention?
  • There are many reports of thefts of different crops in Ukraine at the moment, this is also a problem.
  • Are we going to see more countries doing what India is doing? There is a lot of inconsistency and confusion in the market.
  • Exports are starting to almost look like what COVID-19 vaccines have been looking for for some time out there, across the world. Inadvertently making the situation worse?
  • Countries are going to be inclined to fall back on their individualistic principles… what is going to be good for me today?
  • There are parts of the OMC that deal with conflicts, but they’ve never really had to be tested before
  • There are also countries that are considering reducing the tariffs they had in place, as they try to combat inflationary pressures. It’s something we could see more of, too
  • There is a very long list of countries whose exports are restricted. Is it unprecedented? Mold says yes.
  • We also have our own sanctions, especially with respect to eastern Canada and the export of fertilizer from Russia and Belarus.
  • Just as energy drives geopolitics, fertilizer drives geopolitics.
  • What would it take to get Canadian urea from the west, to the east? Do we have the political will to do this, or is it too important to think about where we are now?
  • There are also logistical challenges
  • As our input costs have increased, the value of our crops has also increased. However, we still need to be able to cash in on these high inputs.
  • When you’re in an inflation cycle, everyone wants to buy everything right away, before the cost goes up even more. Which of course ends up making the situation worse.
  • New Zealand and the United States are lobbying Canada’s interpretation of dairy TRQs.
  • There were three pages alone that covered what the term allowance even means… there’s a lot of stuff there
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